Sinewave Securities

The real estate market in India has grown at a CAGR of approximately 10% from USD 50 billion in 2008 to USD 120 billion in 2017, and is expected to further grow at a CAGR of 17.7% to reach USD 1 trillion by 2030. The real estate market contributed approximately 6% to India’s GDP in 2017 and is likely to contribute approximately 13% to India’s GDP by 2025. Residential, commercial and retail are the three key asset classes that have primarily contributed to the growth of the real estate market in India. (Anarock Report)

The book as the title suggest Fooled by Randomness brings out the role of chance and luck over widely proclaimed qualities marketed more often in the world of randomness. It lays an alternative perspective to various aspects like luck, probability, theory etc. As Taleb proclaims in the preface “my motto is to tease those who take themselves and quality of their knowledge too seriously”. Being a mathematician and an long standing advocate of probability theory Taleb does not refrain from trolling the concept of “certain knowledge” and its practitioners. Qualities like perseverance, persistence and doggedness may be necessary but not enough  in order to win. The prologue gives brief outline regarding the flow of the book and what does it stand for. It lays down the “Table of confusion” covering the central distinctions used in the book.

This is part two of the series in which I have tried to combine and sort them topicwise. Black Sholes The Black-Scholes formula has approached the status of holy writ in finance, and is used when valuing equity put options for financial statement purposes. Key inputs to the calculation include a  contract’s maturity and strike price, as well as the analyst’s expectations for volatility, interest rates and dividends. If the formula is applied to extended time periods, however, it can produce absurd results. In fairness, Black and Scholes almost certainly understood this point well.

Few case studies and concepts by Buffett given through the newsletters are compiled topic wise. It combines Buffett’s magic and mind, simplicity and subtleness which results into extraordinary results overtime past 60 years has been provided in these newsletters year after year. The idea of ”praise specifically criticize generally” can be seen over the years in these letters over the years.

 𝗔 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗖𝗵𝗿𝗶𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝘆𝗲𝗿 –Moderated by prof. Sanjay Bakshi. He talks about focusing illusion –whatever you are looking or thinking at the time has outsize support in your mind comes. Prof. Bakshi brings up a few questions from Chris Mayer’s book 100 Baggers.

CFA India Society’s  YouTube channel is one of the most underrated source to widen your knowledge spectrum. I have tried to pick a few episodes and summarize them. I have also added the ideas from the latest interviews of the delegated person from a few episodes. Howard Marks Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital Management –CFA charter holder and one of the most renowned investors. Oaktree Capital Management is an American global asset management firm specializing in alternative investment strategies. Oaktree emphasizes an opportunistic, value-oriented, and risk-controlled approach to investments in distressed debt, corporate debt (including high yield debt and senior loans), control investing, convertible securities, real estate and listed equities. Throwing the light upon 2008 GFC, Howard gives his view about broader markets, bitcoin, central bank bailouts and a lot more. I have tried to summarize two episodes –The Truth about Investing and Something of Value. Buy at any Pr...

Another book by Professor Jim Collins after Built to last, Good to Great and How does the Mighty Fall, Great by Choice showing - Why do some companies thrive in uncertainty, even chaos, and others do not? The method is similar (comparative historical analysis) and the question of greatness is constant. But in this study, unlike any of the previous research,  Collins selected cases not just on performance or stature but also on the extremity of the environment i.e. PERFORMANCE + ENVIRONMENT Starting from delving into what he learned about the individual people who led these companies, and in, how they led and built their companies differently from their less successful comparisons to studying luck. Collins defined luck, quantified luck, determined if the 10X cases were luckier (or not), and discovered what they do differently about luck. At the end of the book, the detailed methods of research, quantitative and qualitative parameters based on each type of analysis (10x, 20 Mil...

Originally what was designated to be an article which eventually got transformed into a small book. It emerged from the wildfire of 2008 GFC where majority of the markets crumbled. Stocks like Lehman Brothers collapsed into bankruptcy after 158 years of growth and success. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, crippled, succumbed to government conservatorship. Merrill Lynch, the symbol of bullish America, capitulated to a takeover bid. From “Good to Great” to “How does the Mighty Fall” - Principles in Good to Great were derived primarily from studying specific periods in history when the good-to-great companies showed a substantial transformation into an era of superior performance that lasted fifteen years. The research did not attempt to predict which companies would remain great after their fifteen-year run. Indeed, as this work shows, even the mightiest of companies can self-destruct. Collins uses data and collects a pack of about 11 companies- A&P, Addressograph, Ames Department Sto...