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Showing posts from March, 2022

Richer Wiser Happier - Wisdom of a century ?

Book starts with an overview about the investors and their common and uncommon practices. Some of the names include John Bogle, Peter Lynch, Buffet, Munger, Bill Miller etc . The introduction “Inside the minds of greatest investors” suffice the crux and has good collection of quotes and aphorisms. From Bill Miller’s “It’s all probabilities. There is no certainty.” to Bill Raune’s investing principles from Buffet and Munger’s bridge hypothesis to Thorp’s psychological edge. “There are many ways to win, but they all require some form of edge.” Focus in not only to be richer, but happier and wiser as well and to build a life imbibed with meaning which transcends money. Ruane in 2001 had 35 percent of Sequoia’s assets riding on a single stock: Berkshire Hathaway. It had fallen out of favor during the dotcom craze, and Buffett, its chairman and CEO, was lambasted for losing his touch. Yet Ruane saw what others missed: a wonderful company with superior growth prospects run by the smartest gu...

Are we Resilient now ?

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  GFC (2008) to Taper tantrum (2013) to Covid crisis (2020) The above table describe some of the macroeconomic indicators during the three crisis. In recent months, scaling back of pandemic-related stimulus programme amidst persistent inflationary pressures in advanced economies, particularly the US, have reignited some fears of taper tantrum. However, India’s external sector – well supported by strong exports, capital inflows, low CAD and external financing requirements and high foreign exchange reserves, with various external vulnerability indicators well within manageable limits – is far better prepared this time to face any external shocks arising out of tightening of the monetary policy stance by the advanced economies in coming months. The Federal Reserve embarked on a programme of asset purchases under the Quantitative Easing (QE), as part of a broader policy response to the Global Financial Crisis in 2007-08. As the US economy gained traction, in an attempt to unwind the QE...

Information Technology - Cyclical or Secular (Newgen vs Intellect Design vs Persistent)

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According to Gartner estimates, IT spending in India is estimated to reach US$ 93 billion in 2021 (7.3% YoY growth) and further increase to US$ 98.5 billion in 2022. As of FY21, the IT industry employed 4.5 million people. This push towards cloud services has boosted hyper-scale data center investments, with global investments estimated to exceed ~US$ 200 billion annually by 2025.  Broad story: Dotcom bubble in 2000-Stretched valuations and overhyped earnings. 2002-Packaged Software—IBM and SAP growth—lead to rise of TCS, Infy, Wipro, HCL 2010-Engineering Services—Tata Elxi, LTTS and others 2015 onwards Digitalization = Shifting from legacy services (2%Cagr) to digital services(Growing 21% CAGR) 2018 onwards : SaaS(Software as a Service)—Capex one time becomes OPEX—Retained earnings + Pricing power (as less competition) Value Chain Broad overview of popular companies : Happiest Minds Insights=Software as a Service which is OPEX for customer not CAPEX putting up certainty ...